Statistics

I'm on an email list with about 14 others who I met in Virginia, and apparently I'm the only one who finished the trail. The responses from the others on the list indicated most if not all were off the trail. I know of no one else I hiked with during the first half of the trail that has made it to Katahdin yet. Although, I'm sure that Thought Foot, Shamrock, and a few others will make it. Thought Foot is probably a week or two away from the end now. What's puzzled me was the official statistics for trail completion. Its reported that about 26% to 28% of those that start a thru hike finish their thru hike. This is not my experience.

I did a web search to find out where those numbers come from. They apparently come from the Amacola Falls State Park Visitor's center by Springer Mountain, and the ranger station at Mount Katahdin. The problem with these numbers is many if not most people starting at Springer do not do the approach trail. They start at Springer Mountain completely skipping the visitor center. This is what Sonic and I did. Of the two dozen people staying at the Hiker Hostel with us, nearly all were shuttled directly to Springer Mountain. My best guess is that there were at least as many people on the trail who skipped the visitor center as there were people who registered their hike with the park officials. This would cut the percentage of completed thru hikes at least in half.

The other problem with the official statistics is that the rangers at Mount Katahdin only ask if you started in Georgia. They do not ask if you hiked the entire trail. Of the 8 people I camped with during the Hundred Mile Wilderness, 5 had yellow blazed well over a 100 miles. This might be about the average for all people at Katahdin. The guide book talked about how you should resist the urge to yellow blaze in Maine. People are getting tired and burned out. I know I was experiencing those feelings too. However, if you count only those at Katahdin who made an honest effort to hike the entire trail, then you would have to cut the finish rate down again possibly by another half or more. This means the completion rate is only about 5% to 7%, which matches my experience much more than the 26% to 28% does.